BloombergNEF's Transition Metals Outlook 2026 reveals that while most critical energy transition metals are on track to meet supply needs by 2050, copper faces a significant shortfall. The report warns that $332 billion in new copper mine investments is urgently needed to avoid a deficit that could hinder electrification efforts. Without this investment, the global copper market could see a supply gap beginning in 2028, widening to 20 million metric tons by 2050, equivalent to 44% of projected demand.
Copper demand is expected to surge by 61% between 2026 and 2050, reaching nearly 46 million tons, with electrified transport alone accounting for a 244% increase to 11.4 million tons. BloombergNEF cautions that the shortfall could drive up prices, force manufacturers to seek alternatives, and slow the adoption of electric vehicles, batteries, and electricity grids. Even with the necessary investments, new mines take an average of 17 years to come online, meaning the deficit could persist for decades.
The report also highlights concerns over supply security, noting that China dominates metals refining globally. Eight of the 10 materials studied have more than half their refining capacity concentrated in a single country, with seven of these being in China. This raises concerns about potential disruptions in the supply chain.