Copper Holds Steady Above $6.6 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Shift

Copper (HG) is currently trading at $6.6493, showing minimal movement with only a slight negative gap. The metal is positioned above its short-term averages and remains above longer-term averages, suggesting a relatively stable position. Recent shifts in Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations have bolstered demand for copper, keeping the commodity in focus for traders.

The technical outlook for copper is mixed. While the price is above its 20-day moving average (MA-20) but just below the 50-day moving average (MA-50) on the 4-hour chart, it sits above the 200-day moving average (MA-200) on the daily chart. Immediate support is noted at $6.6, with technical indicators showing a bullish long-term structure but overbought short-term conditions. Oscillators like MACD and ADX are neutral, while the RSI suggests a buy bias. Stoch RSI and CCI indicate overbought conditions, signaling potential short-term volatility.

In the near term, copper is expected to trade within a range of $6.5639 to $6.7187. The baseline scenario points to sideways price action within this corridor, with a 79% probability of upward movement. However, the risk of a pullback remains, particularly if the price slips below the immediate support level near the Kijun line. Traders are advised to monitor potential tests of the upper band at $6.7187 if buying momentum resumes.

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. It is important to note that this material does not constitute investment advice and may contain third-party opinions.