Global copper trading is undergoing a shift toward regionalization, with prices in New York and Shanghai diverging due to local supply, demand, and policy factors. The London Metal Exchange (LME) remains the traditional benchmark, but its dominance is being challenged by the US-based Comex and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), according to CME Group’s global head of metals, Jin Hennig.
The fragmentation reflects growing trade barriers, including potential US tariffs on copper imports. Comex copper prices hit a record $6.83 per pound ($15,057 per metric ton) on September 22, a 50% increase since the start of 2025. Since President Donald Trump ordered a tariff probe in February last year, Comex prices have consistently traded above LME prices, creating arbitrage opportunities that encourage copper shipments to the US.
In China, traders are increasingly relying on ShFE prices, which industry sources view as more reflective of the country’s market dynamics. Hennig noted that Comex copper represents the US duty-paid price, while ShFE reflects China’s market, providing tools to assess regional structures. This regionalization also opens up arbitrage trading between Shanghai, New York, and London.
Industry sources suggest that the over 700,000 tons of copper in Comex-registered warehouses may struggle to move unless LME prices rise significantly or European premiums increase enough to incentivize shipments.