Copper Prices Consolidate Amid Supply Tightness and Tariff Threats

Freeport-McMoRan reported its Q3 copper production numbers on Friday, showing 830M lbs in line with forecasts. The company's international operations saw a stronger performance, offsetting lower US production.

The company expects to sell 750M lbs of copper and 100K oz of gold during the quarter, but gold sales are expected to come in below its July 2026 estimate due to delayed sales from Q4. As a result, net cash costs for Q3 are estimated to be around ~5% higher than previously forecasted.

Freeport noted significant progress in the phased ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine, with mill throughput averaging 140K metric tons/day of ore or two-thirds of normalized rates before a September 2025 incident. Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose above $14,300/ton but were still set to finish the week ~2% lower in the biggest weekly loss since May.

Despite the decline, copper prices are consolidating at relatively high levels due to supply tightness and the threat of U.S. tariffs on refined metal. According to Daniel Ghali, Deutsche Bank's new head of metals research, historic stockpiling by the US and China could lead to a shortage of copper worldwide by 2028.