Deutsche Bank (DB) has issued a bold prediction that copper prices could climb to $10 per pound by mid-2027, driven by a potential liquidity crisis as supply tightens. The bank’s forecast contrasts sharply with Goldman Sachs’ (GS) more cautious outlook, which warns of downside risks to its 2027 copper price forecast of $15,400 per tonne following the U.S. midterm elections. Goldman Sachs estimates that if investor positioning remains unchanged, the average copper price could drop to $14,600 per tonne, or even lower to $14,500 per tonne if tariff expectations weaken and reduce U.S. stockpiling.
Daniel Ghali, head of metals research at Deutsche Bank, argues that the copper market is experiencing its scarcest environment since the 1980s, with global above-ground copper inventories at their lowest level since 2006. He notes that most remaining metal is locked within China and the United States, leaving only 30% of inventories available for purchase by the end of 2026. Ghali warns that continued stockpiling could push available supply close to zero, exacerbating the liquidity crisis.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) offers a different perspective, forecasting that the global refined copper surplus will more than triple by 2027 as smelter output rebounds faster than demand. However, Deutsche Bank contends that even with a surplus, inventory concentration in China and the United States could force buyers in other regions to compete for limited accessible copper resources. Ghali cites the October 2025 silver squeeze as an example of how constrained liquidity can amplify price volatility.
Goldman Sachs emphasizes that investor positioning, rather than physical demand, poses the biggest threat to its copper price forecast. Concerns over a Democrat-controlled Congress slowing artificial intelligence investment and data center construction have made investors cautious about copper demand. Additionally, U.S. trade policy could play a crucial role, with the U.S. Department of Commerce recommending a 15% tariff on refined copper cathodes starting in January 2027, rising to 30% the following year. Such measures could further restrict supply available to consumers in other regions.