Copper Prices Fall Despite Mine Supply Warnings

Copper prices have been falling despite predictions of a shortage due to declining mine supply. According to economist Steve Hanke, this year could mark the first annual decline in copper coming from mines since 2017.

Global mine output fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026, with Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine still running at roughly half capacity after a fatal landslide. Chile has also cut its national production forecast by 2.6% for a second consecutive quarter.

Average ore grades have slipped from around 1.6% in 1990 to below 0.6% at many major mines, forcing producers to move more rock for less metal. This squeeze pushed copper to a record above $14,600 a ton this month.

However, forecasts now vary wildly, with Morgan Stanley expecting a 600,000-ton deficit and JPMorgan seeing 330,000 tons. Goldman Sachs is less convinced, arguing the rally may have moved too far and warning manufacturers could switch to aluminum if copper remains expensive.