Copper Prices Ride Tariff Turbulence, Inventories Suggest Strong Demand

Copper prices have been on a rollercoaster ride, hitting an all-time high of US$14,875/t in September before dropping 3% when White House tariff headlines shifted. The metal closed out its third straight monthly gain, settling around US$14,416-14,447/t at the end of September, up approximately 0.9% for the month and 7.9% for the quarter.

The inventory numbers are a key indicator of copper's price movement. ShFE copper cathode stocks fell to 38,744 tonnes by the end of September, a 17.8% week-over-week drop and the lowest reading since January 2024. The direction of travel is one way, and it has been for months.

ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey notes that structural demand trends combined with limited supply expansion should sustain price levels through Q4. The demand is relatively insensitive to China's property market, which remains a drag on construction-related copper use.