Copper Prices Set for Almost 50% Jump as US and China Stockpile Metal

Copper prices are expected to jump by almost 50% in the next year due to stockpiling by the US and China, according to a recent report from Deutsche Bank.

The bank's Head of Metals Research, Daniel Ghali, estimates that the two countries could hold 71% of global copper inventories by year-end, with copper becoming unavailable to users elsewhere by the end of 2028 on the current path.

Ghali attributes this trend to decades-long stockpiling efforts in China and the threat of US import tariffs drawing metal into American warehouses. The physical draw is already visible: LME stocks fell 38% from 402,625 tonnes on April 15th to 251,350 tonnes on September 28th.

The slow growth of Chinese refined copper output, at 3% to 3.4% in 2026, against a 10.4% growth in 2025, is also contributing to the reduced supply. Smelters are facing three pressures: a years-long concentrate shortage, a fourth-quarter tax crackdown on scrap, and an 11% September fall in sulphuric acid.