Copper Prices Set to Soar as US and China Stockpile Metal
Deutsche Bank's Daniel Ghali is predicting that copper prices could jump by as much as 50% to $22,050 a ton by mid-2027. This prediction is based on the fact that the US and China are stockpiling copper, which will leave only 29% of the world's available supply for everyone else.
The US and China have been buying up copper in anticipation of potential tariffs, with Ghali estimating that the US has already stockpiled around 1.3 million tons by year-end. This means that these two countries alone will hold around 71% of the world's freely tradable copper supply.
Meanwhile, mine outages and production delays are also contributing to the shortage, with Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia being hit by a mudslide in September 2025 that has pushed back its restart until 2028. This will result in a loss of around 600,000 tons of contained copper by the end of 2026.
Ghali is warning that this shortage is not just a temporary issue, but rather one that will persist into 2028 and beyond, driven by AI-driven demand and the inability to increase supply quickly enough to meet it.