Copper Prices Soar as Mine Production Slumps Amid Exploration Costs

Copper prices have set another record this week, reaching $14,779 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and $3.74 per pound in New York. The metal has surged by around 24% so far this year and 51% over the past 12 months.

The widely-held explanation for this rise is tariffs, with the Commerce Department proposing a 15% duty on refined copper imports starting next year, increasing to 30% in 2028. However, some argue that this theory no longer holds up as traders are not taking advantage of the premium arbitrage opportunity.

According to data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), global mine production fell by 1.1% in the first half of 2026. Output decreased in top producers Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Chile's largest producer, Codelco, reported a double-digit decline in production.

This trend is part of a larger problem: despite finding 263 major copper deposits since 1990, holding about 1.4 billion tons of copper, exploration has been inefficient. The industry spent $6 billion between 1990 and 2000 to find 714.8 million tons, averaging around $8 per ton. In contrast, the same amount was spent between 2020 and this year to find only 8.7 million tons at an average cost of $1,889 per ton.

As a result, the time from discovery to production has increased significantly, with an average of 17.5 years. This means that a newly discovered deposit won't contribute copper until the 2040s.