Copper Supply Hits Record Prices: Global Mine Output Expected to Decline

Global mined copper production is expected to decline this year for the first time in nearly a decade, despite record prices. According to Sprott Asset Management, mine output fell 1.1% year over year in the first half of 2026, with disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine and Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula complex removing an estimated 600,000 tonnes of expected production.

The constraint is largely due to the time it takes for copper projects to move from discovery into production, which averages about 17.5 years. 'Higher prices improve project economics, but they cannot compress every stage of development or quickly replenish the discovery pipeline,' said Jacob White, director of ETF product management at Sprott Asset Management.

Chile remains the biggest weak point, with output falling 6.6% in the first half and 9.4% year over year in July. State copper commission Cochilco cut its 2026 production forecast to 5.27 million tonnes, citing exceptionally low first-half output from Codelco, Escondida, and Spence.