Corn Belt Harvest Basis Shifts in Unexpected Patterns

Farmers in the eastern Corn Belt are experiencing typical fall basis dips as harvest activity picks up, but this year’s pattern differs from recent trends. According to Josh Strine, a research assistant in agricultural economics at Purdue University, corn basis levels have weakened significantly since early September, with declines of up to 25 cents per bushel for corn and over 40 cents for soybeans.

The shift in basis patterns is notable. While basis levels are typically strongest in northern and western Iowa during late September, this year central Indiana and Ohio are seeing the highest corn basis levels. In contrast, Illinois and Iowa are experiencing weak corn basis, with southeast Iowa hitting its lowest recorded level for this time of year.

Strine attributes this shift to production changes. Corn production is expected to be lower in Indiana and Michigan, which supports a stronger basis. In Ohio, ethanol plants are bidding well above normal, contributing to the stronger basis in that state. These factors are altering the usual harvest season dynamics across the Corn Belt.