Corn Ethanol Set to Dominate Brazil's Output by 2028
Brazil's corn ethanol industry is expected to reach significant growth in the next few years, according to new estimates from StoneX. By 2028, corn-based ethanol could account for nearly one-third of Brazil's total ethanol production.
Currently, corn-based ethanol represents around 27% of Brazil's output, but this share is expected to rise to 28% in the current season and then accelerate to 33.6% by 2027/28. This growth is driven by eight new plants scheduled to start operations and five capacity expansions.
The production capacity for corn ethanol is projected to increase from 38,900 cubic meters a day in April 2027 to 51,200 cubic meters a day by the end of March 2028. As a result, corn ethanol production is expected to reach 13.6 billion liters in the 2027/28 season, up 29.7% from a year earlier.
The rapid supply growth raises concerns about where the additional ethanol will be consumed. StoneX analyst Lígia Heise notes that 'we will have almost 3 billion more liters of ethanol coming onto the market from 2027 to 2028, creating a significant need for additional demand.'