Corn Harvest Pressure Weighs on Crop Prices in Mid-Oct
The corn harvest in Illinois has begun, with the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service estimating that 8% of the crop was complete as of September 14. As combines roll across the US Corn Belt, commodity market analysis attributes any observed decrease in crop prices to the phenomenon of 'harvest pressure'. This occurs when abundant supply at harvest means farmers are willing sellers and grain buyers less aggressive bidders for immediate delivery.
Researchers studied seasonal corn basis patterns for 136 elevators across twelve Corn Belt states from 2010 to 2025. They found that the average basis bottoms in mid-October, with a decline of around 11 cents per bushel. However, this average masks greater seasonal basis variation in specific locations.
The researchers also observed that harvest pressure is greatest when corn supply exceeds local demand and storage capacity. This can lead to larger harvest basis lows in areas near river transport, such as Illinois, where the median decline is around 19 cents per bushel.