Corn Prices Rebound After Six-Week Low Amid Harvest Progress

Corn prices rebounded to $5.08 a bushel on October 6, 2026, marking a 2.17% daily gain after hitting a six-week low near $4.97. The rally came despite a large September corn stocks figure of 2.095 billion bushels, surpassing expectations of 1.924 billion bushels. Harvest progress also accelerated, with 23% of the crop harvested by October 4, ahead of the five-year average of 15%.

The USDA's September supply and demand report trimmed the national yield forecast by 2.2 bushels to 178.5 bushels per acre, reducing production estimates to 15.8 billion bushels. Ending stocks for 2026/27 were projected at 1.567 billion bushels, while the average farm price forecast increased to $4.80 from $4.50. Export demand remained weak, though ethanol production provided steady support, consuming 477.7 million bushels of corn in August.

Companies like Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) and Deere (NYSE:DE) are closely watching these trends. ADM reported a 22% rise in Carbohydrate Solutions profit, driven by ethanol margins. Deere expects 2026 to mark the bottom of the agricultural equipment cycle, with sales projected to fall 15% to 20%. Nutrien (NYSE:NTR; TSX:NTR), a fertilizer and farm retail business, reported net earnings of $1.22 billion and raised its potash volume guidance.

Looking ahead, key factors that could influence corn prices include yield outcomes, export sales, and feed demand. The USDA's October crop production and supply and demand report, due on October 9, along with weekly crop progress and export sales data, will provide further insights. Upcoming quarterly results from ADM, Deere, and Nutrien will also be closely monitored.