Corn Stocks Surprise with Sharp Increase Pushing Prices Down

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's quarterly stocks report on September 30 revealed higher-than-expected corn stocks, pushing prices below the $5 mark for the first time since August 24. The report showed corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, the highest since 2017, catching market analysts off guard. Pre-report estimates had ranged from 1.918 billion to 2.005 billion bushels, with StoneX Financial's Mike Castle noting that the actual figure was significantly higher.

While soybean and wheat stocks also saw adjustments, the corn figures dominated the market reaction. Soybean stocks came in 9 million bushels below expectations at 315 million, and wheat stocks were slightly lower than anticipated at 1.846 billion bushels. Castle noted that wheat stocks were at a three-year low, with the tightest supply since 2023 due to drought conditions in the Plains.

The report also included revisions to the 2025 corn crop, reducing U.S. production from 17.021 billion bushels to 16.964 billion. Despite this, the yield remained unchanged at 186.5 bushels per acre. The demand side saw a 230 million bushel reduction, leading to a net increase of 170 million bushels in stocks, contributing to bearish market sentiment.

The small grains summary, though overshadowed by the corn data, showed winter wheat production at 1.02 billion bushels, higher than expected, while spring wheat was 20 million bushels lower than forecasted at 450 million bushels. Castle emphasized that global market dynamics, particularly in the Black Sea region, will continue to influence U.S. export demand.