Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group believes gold and silver may be nearing a market bottom, despite ongoing price pressures. With gold currently trading around $4,036, Christian does not expect prices to drop as low as $3,800, though further declines are still possible. He suggests that investors waiting for lower prices might start buying if gold holds around the $4,000 level, signaling a potential bottom.
For silver, CPM Group sees $50 as a strong potential base, but investor behavior will depend on political and economic conditions. Christian also discusses platinum’s decline below $1,500 and notes that palladium is currently oversold, with supply support being outweighed by broader market bearishness and rising interest rates.
Political uncertainty, particularly surrounding the U.S. congressional elections, is expected to persist beyond Election Day, potentially extending through January and beyond. This uncertainty, along with international conflicts and economic concerns, could drive investors to hold more gold and silver as safe-haven assets.
The presentation also covers the relationship between nominal interest rates, real interest rates, and inflation. Christian explains that higher interest rates do not automatically lead to lower gold prices, emphasizing that the forces driving interest rates are crucial for precious metals demand.