CPM's Jeffrey Christian Dismisses Chart Focus for Gold and Silver Forecasts

Gold and silver markets are currently at a crossroads, with both metals trading near record highs but facing conflicting signals from technical and fundamental analysis. On 6 October 2026, gold futures hovered around $4,193, while silver approached $60. Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, argues that charts should matter least in serious forecasts for these metals, emphasizing fundamentals over technical indicators.

Christian’s framework suggests that gold’s support levels are dynamic, shifting with dollar strength and real yields. Key support levels include $4,000 (already broken), $3,800 (major support), and a long-range trend line around $2,200-$2,400. Silver, meanwhile, has a gentler trend line with support near $28-$30, but CPM expects it to hold above $54-$55 even in a sell-off.

CPM treats technical and fundamental analysis as complementary tools. Technical analysis provides timing signals, while fundamental analysis determines long-term direction. For example, CPM’s gold forecast includes a rebound toward $4,200-$4,300 in the short term and a move toward $5,000 by 2027, based on macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics.

One contentious issue is the silver deficit. The Silver Institute reported a deficit, but CPM’s analysis suggests that excluding investment demand could show surpluses in most years. Christian argues that investment demand drives larger price swings and that above-ground stocks mean drawdowns don’t necessarily indicate shortages.