Critical Mineral Scarcity: It's Not Just About Reserves
Critical mineral scarcity is not just about reserves, but also about supply chain resilience. GEM Mining Consulting analyzed six critical minerals - copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, battery-grade graphite, and magnet rare earths - and found that only 68% of primary lithium requirements will be met by 2035, while 74% of cobalt and 75% of copper needs will be covered. However, graphite and magnet rare earths appear to have sufficient supply, but are heavily reliant on dominant processing hubs.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2035 supply outlook was used in the analysis, along with GEM Mining's screening framework. The study highlights that companies advancing projects from exploration to production will be crucial in securing future critical minerals supply.
Copper demand is expected to surge over 70% by 2050, driven by data centers and the energy transition. Gunnison Copper (TSX:GCU) has started producing copper cathode at its Johnson Camp mine in the US, which is also developing a fully vertically integrated operation in Arizona with an estimated post-tax net present value of $2 billion.
Lithium demand is projected to double by 2030, reaching around 3.7Mt of lithium carbonate equivalent from 1.6Mt. Lake Winn Resources (TSX-V:LWR) is advancing the Little Nahanni Pegmatite Group Project in Canada, which provides exposure to lithium, tantalum, and tin.
Cobalt production is constrained by strict export quotas and concentrate bans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produces around 80% of the world's supply. Cobalt Blue (ASX:COB) is developing an integrated critical minerals platform with a cobalt refinery and Broken Hill Cobalt Project in New South Wales.
Graphite and rare earths face different challenges, with supply security depending on new discoveries, processing capability, specialized technology, equipment, and customer networks. Graphite One (TSX-V:GPH) is advancing a fully integrated US supply chain anchored by the Graphite Creek deposit in Alaska, while Ionic Rare Earths (ASX:IXR) focuses on a circular, traceable supply chain for magnet recycling technologies.