Crude oil prices fell 0.88% to ₹8,552 as the International Energy Agency (IEA) accelerated the release of strategic oil stocks to ease record-high fuel prices. The move comes amid tightening global supply due to the Iran war, compounded by geopolitical tensions after Yemen’s Houthis attacked Aden International Airport and a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico threatening US oil facilities. UBS revised its forecasts, now expecting prices to hit $100 per barrel in Q4 2026, up from a previous $80 estimate, citing greater disruptions in Middle East oil flows.
US crude inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million in the week ended October 2, defying expectations of a 1.7 million-barrel increase. Stocks at Cushing rose by 444,000 barrels, while refinery runs increased by 223,000 barrels per day. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve released another 800,000 barrels, bringing holdings to 283 million barrels. OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision.
The IEA warned that shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity could worsen market tightness as Middle East disruptions persist into 2027. Technically, the market saw long liquidation with open interest declining 1.18% to 9,390 contracts as prices dropped ₹76. Support is at ₹8,448, with a break below potentially testing ₹8,345. Resistance stands at ₹8,739, with a move above targeting ₹8,927.