Crude Oil Dips on Eased Supply Concerns and Inventory Gains

Crude oil prices in India fell 0.47% to ₹8,628 on Wednesday, as supply concerns eased due to resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release. Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, recovered to over 81% of pre-war levels in September, driven by stronger Saudi exports despite attacks on its infrastructure. Iranian exports dropped to zero due to a US blockade, while OPEC+ maintained unchanged production targets for November, suggesting no further policy adjustments until next year.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee acknowledged persistent market volatility and tight supply conditions. US crude speculators reduced WTI net long positions by 17,317 contracts to 131,150 for the week ending September 29. The EIA reported a 922,000-barrel increase in US crude inventories, surpassing expectations, while Cushing stocks rose 553,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs declined by 554,000 barrels per day, with utilization falling to 92.5%. Gasoline and distillate inventories also dropped, supporting diesel futures, which gained 4.5% to $5.1175 per gallon.

OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision. The IEA warned of potential market tightness due to shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity, with disruptions in Middle Eastern flows expected to persist into 2027. Technically, crude oil faced long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.67% to 9,502. Support is at ₹8,446, and a break below could trigger a decline toward ₹8,264, while resistance is at ₹8,752.