Crude oil prices extended their decline on November 10, 2026, with December WTI crude oil (CLZ26) falling -0.13 (-0.15%) and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ26) dropping -0.0256 (-0.98%). The downward pressure comes as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war gain momentum, raising hopes for a full resumption of Middle Eastern energy supplies. Qatar's Foreign Ministry reported 'positive responses' from both the US and Iran to mediation efforts, while the Trump administration faces increased pressure to seek a resolution following the Democratic sweep in the midterm elections.
Despite the ongoing conflict, oil exports from key Middle Eastern producers have remained robust. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait rose 10% to 15.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, according to Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia's crude production surged by +970,000 bpd to 9.2 million bpd in October, recovering from a 36-year low in August. However, Houthi missile attacks and threats to shipping near the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait continue to pose risks to supply.
On the bearish side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in September that high oil prices and restricted supply will cause the largest drop in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA also raised its estimate for this year’s global oil deficit to 1.7 million bpd from last month’s 1.3 million bpd estimate. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed on November 1 to keep production quotas unchanged for December, though delegates approved a final increase of +188,000 bpd in September.
In the US, crude oil inventories as of October 30 were -5.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, while gasoline inventories were -0.9% below average. US crude oil production reached a new record high of 14.003 bpd in the week ending October 30. The number of active US oil rigs also rose by +1 rig to a 1.5-year high of 463 rigs in the week ended November 6.