Crude oil prices tumbled on Monday, November 9, 2026, as optimism grew over potential diplomatic progress to end the US-Iran war. December WTI crude oil (CLZ26) closed down -3.98 (-4.38%), marking a 2.25-month low, while December RBOB gasoline (RBZ26) fell -0.1258 (-4.53%), hitting an 8-month low. The sell-off was driven by reports that President Trump indicated it's "highly unlikely" he'll order more strikes against Iran if peace talks advance. Additionally, news outlet Israel Hayom reported that Iran had dropped its demand to control the Strait of Hormuz, further pressuring oil prices.
Despite the diplomatic hopes, tensions remained high. Secretary of State Rubio downplayed the chances of a breakthrough, stating that Iran's demands were unacceptable. Meanwhile, the US launched overnight attacks on targets on the Iranian island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supplies from the Middle East continued unabated, with exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait climbing 10% to 15.53 million bpd in October. Saudi Arabia's crude production rose by +970,000 bpd to 9.2 million bpd in October, recovering from a 36-year low in August, though it faces threats from Houthi missile attacks.
On the bearish side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that high oil prices and restricted supply would cause the biggest drop in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA raised its estimate for this year’s global oil deficit to 1.7 million bpd due to supply restrictions caused by the US-Iran war. OPEC+ agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged for December, but delegates approved a final increase of +188,000 bpd in September. Vortexa reported that crude oil stored on tankers fell -7.7% w/w to 88.32 million bbl in the week ended November 6.
US crude oil inventories as of October 30 were -5.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, while gasoline inventories were -0.9% below the average. US crude oil production hit a new record high of 14.003 bpd in the week ending October 30. Baker Hughes reported that the number of active US oil rigs rose by +1 rig to a 1.5-year high of 463 rigs in the week ended November 6.