Crude oil prices surged on Friday, October 30, 2026, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. December WTI crude oil (CLZ26) climbed +1.61 (+1.58%), while December RBOB gasoline (RBZ26) rose +0.0681 (+2.20%). The rally came amid growing concerns over a potential US military strike on Iran as soon as next week, following the US mid-term elections on November 3. The Wall Street Journal reported that a top US commander had briefed President Trump on military options, adding to market anxiety.
European diesel futures also gained ground after reports of a Ukrainian attack on a refinery in Russia’s Samara region, marking the first such strike in about two weeks. Additionally, two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating tensions. Despite efforts by Qatar to broker a temporary peace deal, both Iran and the US appear unwilling to make concessions, dimming hopes for a swift resolution.
On the supply side, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories, falling by -1.9 million barrels, compared to market expectations of a -1 million barrel drop. This marked the fourth consecutive weekly drop. However, US crude oil production reached a new record high, serving as a bearish counterbalance. Gasoline inventories rose +3.87 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell -1.46 million barrels.
Despite the ongoing hostilities, oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, with October’s daily transit volumes reported at 16.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by Kpler and 15.4 million bpd by Vortexa, approaching pre-war levels of about 19 million bpd. US Energy Secretary Wright noted that Persian Gulf oil flows have recovered to about 80% of their pre-war level, though refined-product shipments remain constrained.