Crude Oil Risk Premium Held by Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Razan Hilal, a StoneX Media Market Analyst, notes that Brent crude oil is currently holding in a neutral range after a steep drawdown from a seven-month barrier.
The crude oil risk premium is now tied to two geopolitical fronts: U.S.-Iran tensions and Russia-Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure. A full unwind of the premium requires de-escalation on both fronts, as the second front keeps part of the premium in place even when the U.S.-Iran narrative cools.
Hilal explains that the path toward deeper support zones on the chart is tied to more than one conflict. A sustained crude oil breakout aligns with rate hike expectations across markets, and a move into deeper zones lines up with the recovery of broader supply routes and de-escalation across both conflicts.