Two research desks, Deutsche Bank and StoneX, have recently shifted their outlook on silver, predicting a surplus in the coming years. Deutsche Bank's head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, suggested in an interview that Chinese solar silver demand is likely down by a third this year. The bank anticipates a physical surplus as early as 2027, with a potential average silver price of $70 an ounce by the second quarter of that year. StoneX, on the other hand, expects a surplus of about five weeks of physical demand in 2026, though it did not specify an exact ounce figure.
The surplus predictions contrast with the shortfall that silver holders have been relying on. A surplus implies more silver is being supplied than used, which could lead to growing stockpiles and potentially lower prices. However, the solar demand decline cited by Deutsche Bank is largely already accounted for in existing forecasts from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, which predict a 19% fall in photovoltaic demand this year. This means the bank's surplus call may not significantly alter the physical balance unless solar demand falls even further.
Silver has had a weak October, dropping about 6% on October 14 following higher-than-expected US consumer prices. As of Monday, silver was trading at $56.93, while gold was at $4,137.80, resulting in a gold-silver ratio of about 72.7. Silver is currently about 20.5% below its 2025 closing price. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its October 27 to 28 meeting, with another rate hike likely in December.
The next key test for these surplus predictions will come in November when Metals Focus and the Silver Institute update their forecasts. Until then, the surplus calls remain forecasts rather than confirmed measurements, and the existing shortfall forecast still stands.