Diesel Export Boom Sparks Fears of Price Controls
The US diesel market has seen a significant surge in exports this year, driven by disruptions to global refining capacity and refined-product flows. The Gulf Coast diesel crack spread surpassed $100/bbl for the first time in August and has remained elevated ever since.
The US has historically been the biggest supplier of diesel to the global market, and with foreign buyers pulling harder on a system already near its limit, exports have increased significantly. In H1 2026, US distillate exports averaged about 1.4 MMb/d, up from 1.25 MMb/d in 2025 and about 7X the volumes from 20 years ago.
A potential plan to limit U.S. diesel exports has been discussed as a way to keep prices in check, but this could result in unintended short- and long-term consequences. The disruptions to global refining capacity have been exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and upset trade flows, leading to sharply higher prices for crude oil and refined products.