Dollar Surges Past 102 as Soft Data Reprices Fed Rate Outlook

The past week in commodities was marked by a sharp bond selloff and a surge in the US dollar, which pushed above 102 for the first time since April 2025.

Two soft data releases on Wednesday and Friday prompted a significant repricing of the near-term Fed rate outlook. The Core PCE print came in softer than expected, while the September payrolls landed at just 29,000, far short of the estimated 84,000 to 90,000.

The jobs report immediately led to a decline in hike odds for the October meeting from above 60 percent to below 20 percent. US equities rallied on Friday's data, but spot gold and silver closed the week down more than 3 percent and 6 percent respectively.