Investment firm Dragon Capital anticipates that Ukraine may reopen its Black Sea grain corridor for exports by 2027, following a diplomatic agreement similar to the 2022-2023 Black Sea Grain Initiative. This projection comes from the company's updated macroeconomic forecast, published on October 8. The report highlights that intensified Russian attacks since July 2026 have severely disrupted cargo shipments through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, crippling grain and other commodity exports.
The blockade is expected to reduce Ukraine’s real GDP by 2.2%, even with partial redirection of agricultural exports to alternative routes like Danube ports. However, resuming seaborne grain exports before the 2027 spring planting campaign could significantly mitigate economic losses, shrinking the blockade’s impact by 1.5 percentage points to 0.7% of GDP. Analysts suggest this could be achieved through a new international agreement ensuring safe grain cargo transportation.
Dragon Capital believes a new grain export agreement could be reached as early as next year, though broader deals covering maritime trade and energy infrastructure are unlikely. The firm forecasts a record Ukrainian foreign trade deficit of $71 billion in 2026, equivalent to 31% of GDP, driven by reduced exports of grain, steel, and iron ore. Additionally, the company has revised its economic growth forecast for 2026 from 1.5% growth to a 0.5% contraction, with a further 1% GDP decline expected in 2027.