The ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran is reshaping global oil security dynamics, prompting East Asian democracies to explore alternative energy sources. The Atlantic Council highlights Western Canada's Pacific Link pipeline as a potential solution, offering stable and reliable oil supplies from a democratic ally. Canada's heavy oil sands crude can be processed with specialized equipment, and some refineries in South Korea are already increasing imports from Canada.
Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are encouraged to invest in coker retrofits at existing refineries to handle Canadian heavy oil, a process that could take about four to five years. South Korean refineries, in particular, are well-positioned to intake existing Canadian crude exports with minimal adjustments. The report emphasizes the strategic advantage of shorter shipping times and avoiding vulnerable maritime choke points.
The Atlantic Council argues that East Asian democracies should prioritize oil security over cost, given the rising risks of energy blockades. Diversifying oil supplies from non-Middle Eastern sources, such as Canada, can provide insurance against instability in the Persian Gulf and Bab el-Mandeb. This shift in energy strategy is crucial for ensuring long-term energy security in the region.