EBRD Warns of 50-60% Drop in Ukraine's Grain Exports Amid Black Sea Disruptions

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has warned of a significant drop in Ukraine's grain and oilseed exports due to disruptions at Black Sea ports and damage to transport infrastructure.

In its forecast, the EBRD predicts that Ukraine's grain and oilseed exports could fall by 50-60% in the second half of 2026. This decline is attributed to the loss of deep-sea port capacity and the inability of alternative routes via the Danube and the EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes to fully compensate for this loss.

The EBRD also notes that low water levels on the Danube and damage to railway infrastructure are constraining throughput, further exacerbating the situation. As a result, there may be a significant build-up of unsold grain and oilseed stocks in Ukraine, which would increase demand for storage capacity and put additional pressure on agricultural companies' liquidity and working capital.

The EBRD's warning also extends to global food markets, with wheat prices having risen by more than a third since February 2026 to around $7.50 per bushel. The bank has cut its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 1.5% from 2.2% projected in June and lowered the 2027 forecast to 2.5%, with the outlook depending largely on the restoration of key export routes and continued external financial support.