Egypts Wheat Imports Plunge 65% Amid Black Sea Disruptions

Egypt's wheat imports plummeted by 65% during the third quarter of 2026, dropping to 1.3 million tons, as Black Sea turmoil disrupted supply chains. A government official attributed this decline to renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and broader Middle East conflicts. The Egyptian government has halted all wheat purchases since May, with no imports expected until November, leaving the private sector to fill the gap.

The halt in government purchases follows a significant increase in imports earlier in the year, as officials sought to mitigate potential supply disruptions from the Iran War and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Egypt relies heavily on wheat imports, with Russia and Ukraine supplying about 80% of its total imports. The recent suspension of operations at key grain-exporting terminals in Novorossiysk due to Ukrainian drone attacks has further strained supply routes.

Global wheat prices have surged by 34%, reaching $315 per ton, up from $235 per ton a year earlier. Hesham Suleiman, director of Mediterranean Star for grain trade and import, anticipates Egypt's wheat imports will total around 12 million tons by the end of 2026, a 9% decrease from the previous year. Increased domestic wheat production, which reached 5 million tons this season, may help offset some of the decline in imports.

Suleiman also noted that the depreciation of the Egyptian pound against the dollar has made importers cautious about stockpiling wheat at current high prices. He warned that a potential settlement in the Russian-Ukrainian war could lead to a sharp drop in global wheat prices, potentially causing losses for importers who have purchased large quantities at present levels.