EIA Forecasts Strait of Hormuz Disruptions to Persist Through 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecasted that oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Middle East conflicts, will persist through at least 2027.

The EIA estimates that these disruptions will amount to approximately 600,000 barrels per day and continue through the end of next year.

Average oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in the second quarter of this year were 4.9 million barrels per day, down significantly from 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, prior to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The EIA has revised its 2026 gasoline and diesel price forecasts upward by 3.7% and 5.4%, respectively, and increased its 2027 retail gasoline price forecast by 6.5% compared to its estimate one month ago.