EIA Raises Brent Price Forecast for 2026 Amid Middle East Supply Risks

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its outlook for Brent crude oil prices, predicting an average of $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. This marks a $14 increase from its previous forecast, driven by ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, attacks on critical oil infrastructure, and a global decline in oil inventories.

The EIA highlighted that recent attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline disrupted key oil flows, causing the Brent spot price to spike to $131 per barrel on September 15. Although the pipeline partially resumed operations by September 22, the volatility underscores the risks to oil supply and prices. The agency also noted tightness in diesel markets, which is increasing demand for crude oil to meet refining needs.

Despite the rise in attacks, the EIA estimates that Middle Eastern oil exports increased in September, while production curtailments decreased. However, the agency anticipates that restrictions on oil flows will persist into 2026, with an average of 4.5 million barrels per day of production still curtailed. High tanker rates and increased insurance costs are adding further upward pressure on oil prices.

Looking ahead, the EIA expects Brent prices to decline gradually in 2027, as alternative export routes and new pipeline capacity in the UAE come online. By the fourth quarter of 2027, the agency forecasts Brent to average $74 per barrel, assuming global inventories recover. However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is likely to keep oil flows and prices volatile in the short term.