EIA Raises Crude Oil Price Forecasts Amid Middle East Supply Risks

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its crude oil price forecasts upwards for both 2026 and 2027 in its latest outlook. The agency expects U.S. WTI crude spot prices to average $80.88/bbl in 2026, up from the previous forecast of $76.26. Similarly, Brent crude spot prices are expected to average $86.81/bbl in 2026, a notable increase from $81.91.

The EIA also highlighted significant Middle East production disruptions in July, with estimated output shut-ins averaging 5.5 million bpd. This reduction in supply has contributed to the upward revision in price forecasts, which now point to tighter supply conditions. Demand forecasts were little changed, although 2027 demand was revised slightly higher.

The bullish outlook for crude oil prices is supported by strong global demand for U.S. exports and lower U.S. imports, which are expected to remain below average through 2027. The combination of higher price forecasts, lower expected production, and Middle East supply disruptions tilts the report bullish for the nearer-term market.