EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts Amid Disruptions Through Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly raised its oil price forecasts for 2026, citing persistent disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and a rapid drawdown in global inventories.

U.S. crude oil inventories surged by 17.423 million barrels, exceeding expectations for a decline of 1.8 million barrels, according to the EIA's latest report.

The EIA now expects Brent crude to average $86.81 per barrel this year, up from its previous forecast of $81.91, while its WTI forecast has been raised from $76.26 to $80.88 per barrel.

The agency attributes the revised forecasts primarily to persistent disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which fell from 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of last year to just 4.9 million bpd in Q2 2026.