EIA Warns of Prolonged Oil Price Spike as Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Persist

The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to significant disruptions in global oil markets. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for Brent crude prices in 2026 to $86.81 per barrel, up from a previous estimate of $81.91.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, has fallen to its lowest level in a week. Only eight vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, compared to a 10-day average of about 12, according to Kpler data.

The EIA expects prices to ease in 2027, forecasting average Brent at $69.39 per barrel and WTI at $65.39 per barrel. However, the agency also warns that around 5.5 million barrels per day of global oil production remains shut in due to disruptions linked to the conflict.