El Niño Forecast to Triple Wheat Prices Amid Rising Protein Demand

The Met Office has issued a warning that the 2026 El Niño could be the largest since the 19th century, with severe water scarcity projected to triple wheat prices by 2030. According to research published in Earth's Future, 74% of annual wheat price fluctuations between 2000 and 2021 can be attributed to water scarcity, with prices reaching $364/tonne at 3°C warming.

Wheat procurement teams are urged to act now and pre-qualify alternative suppliers before shortages hit. As the Met Office's Professor Adam Scaife put it, 'this is an unprecedented event' that will leave companies vulnerable if they rely on passive tracking over formal contracts and mapped risk.

In other news, Walmart has deployed its $2.9 billion tariff refund to increase price rollbacks by 53%, with comparable sales rising 2.6% and e-commerce jumping 24%. However, Flowers Foods reported a 30% drop in Q2 net income and volume decline of 5.8%, despite efforts to offset the slide with price and mix gains.

The protein demand is at a 7-year high, with 48% of US adults actively seeking more protein, according to Circana's 2026 Eating Patterns report. Smucker's Uncrustables has also achieved $1 billion in annual sales, driven by its fridge-friendly format and expanded morning protein line.