El Niño Looms Large Over South Africa's Summer Grain Season
South Africa's summer grain and oilseed production season is set to begin next month, but concerns are growing about the looming El Niño event.
The South African Weather Service (Saws) has signaled some worries in its monthly Climate Watch report at the end of August 2026, warning that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) will continue strengthening towards a very strong El Niño state within the next couple of months and last until the end of the 2026/27 summer season.
The typical signs of an impending El Niño are already visible over the Pacific Ocean, and it's expected that South Africa will experience drier and warmer conditions during this coming summer.
The grain prices are already reflecting these concerns, with white and yellow maize spot prices up by 9% and 10%, respectively, from a month ago, trading around R3,965 per ton and R3,931 per ton. The soybean spot price rose 13% from a month ago to R8,953 per ton.
The excellent soil moisture remains the main comfort for farmers, but input costs, mainly fertiliser and fuel, driven by the US-Iran war, are also putting pressure on the farming sector.