El Niño Looms Over South Africa's Challenging Farm Season
The upcoming 2026-2027 season in South Africa is shaping up to be a challenging one for farmers. The ongoing war between the US and Iran has led to supply constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, causing farm input costs to rise.
Local fertilizer prices have increased by an average of 20% from last year's levels as of August 2026. Fuel prices are also up from a year ago, although they moderated after the US-Iran conflict began.
Brent crude prices hovering above $100/bbl may put further upward pressure on fuel prices, especially in the diesel market. The refining margins have risen more sharply than before.
The Black Sea region's conditions are not supporting global food security as Russia continues to destroy infrastructure in various exporting areas in Ukraine, adding upward pressure on commodity prices.