El Niño Looms Over South Africa's Summer Grain Season
South Africa's summer grain and oilseed production season is approaching with concerns over an intensifying El Niño weather pattern. Despite favorable soil moisture conditions, farmers are worried about the rainfall outlook for the upcoming season.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo notes that farmers in South Africa's eastern regions will begin preparing land next month to plant yellow maize and soybeans, two of the dominant crops. The current soil moisture provides some comfort to farmers, but the weather forecast remains a major concern.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that El Niño-Southern Oscillation has strengthened and is expected to move towards a very strong El Niño state over the following months, potentially persisting through the 2026-27 summer season. This will likely lead to drier and warmer conditions during the coming summer.
The weather outlook has already been reflected in grain and oilseed prices, with concerns about the upcoming production season emerging despite record output in the 2025-26 season. Sihlobo notes that white maize and yellow maize spot prices were 9% and 10% higher, respectively, than a month earlier, while soybean spot price had increased by 13% over the same period.
The price increases are notable given that South Africa recorded abundant maize and soybean supplies during the previous season. However, Sihlobo attributes the price movements to concerns over the 2026-27 season, as well as higher input costs driven by the US-Iran war.