El Nino-Resilient Food System Faces Test in Coming Months

A strong El Nino event is forecasted for later this year and early next, but near-record inventories of key crops, technological advances, and the emergence of major exporters such as Brazil and Russia are expected to cushion its impact.

The global food system has become more resilient over the decades due to increased crop yields from improved irrigation, fertilizers, and crop protection. Farm production has outpaced consumption and population growth since the 1980s, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and analysts.

However, dryness caused by El Nino has already disrupted crop planting in large parts of Asia, including India, Southeast Asia, and Australia. In India, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, there is currently an abundance of rice stockpiles equivalent to more than a year's worth of total global exports.

The strong El Nino event will intensify in the fourth quarter and early next year, said Chris Hyde, a U.S.-based meteorologist. This could lead to reduced wheat production in key supplier Australia and impact global food supplies and prices.