El Niño Set to Send Food Commodity Prices Soaring by Up to 16%
El Niño's impact on global food commodity prices is expected to be significant, according to Beroe, a consultancy firm. With a greater than 93% probability of a 'very strong' El Niño event developing and a 75% chance that the October-December 2026 season will be an 'historic' one, exceeding strengths dating back to 1950, commodity prices could rise by 14-16%. This increase is expected to take time to materialize, with the strongest price response emerging around 12 months after the climate event peaks.
Cocoa and sugar are among the commodities most exposed to El Niño's effects. Cocoa prices are forecast to increase by nearly 9% in the short term due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming West African main crop. Sugar is also at risk, with Indian sugar expected to record the strongest upside, while Europe currently benefits from relatively comfortable inventories.
Vegetable oils, such as rapeseed oil and soybean oil, are also affected by El Niño, with prices expected to rise due to structural supply deficits, weather-related production risks, and resilient biodiesel demand. Corn presents a more balanced outlook, with favorable crop prospects in major exporting regions offsetting disruption elsewhere.