El Niño Weighs on South American Fishmeal Output Amid Global Shortfall

El Niño's impact on marine ingredients production is being felt in Peru and Chile, which are among the largest contributors to the decline in fishmeal and fish oil output. Lower catches in parts of Africa and northern Europe have added to the global shortfall. According to Enrico Bachis, market research director at IFFO, 'The reduced fishmeal and fish oil supply from South America might be offset by some of the regions in Asia that have their peak fishing season in the last quarter of the year.' China, India, and Oman are among those countries.

China's domestic production of fishmeal and fish oil resumed in August, but initial estimates indicate that output through July 2026 was better than a year ago. However, the availability of fish raw material since August remains to be observed. The peak summer season and critical growth stage for aquaculture species in China also pose challenges and elevated production risks.

Aquaculture feed demand has entered its seasonal peak, but market data show that stocking volumes for specialty species such as largemouth bass, snakehead, and yellow catfish declined year on year during the first half of 2026. This suggests that feed demand and fishmeal consumption may weaken during the grow-out stage.