Eldorado Gold Nears Skouries Startup with Share Price Momentum

Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD) is nearing the startup of its Skouries copper-gold project in Greece, with commissioning underway and first concentrate targeted for the third quarter. The company's recent progress at Skouries has driven a strong share price momentum, with a 30-day return of 37.08% and a one-year total shareholder return of 84.23%. Despite this sharp move, Eldorado Gold still trades at what appears to be a steep intrinsic discount.

Jefferies has started coverage of the company, and its analysts believe that the commissioning of Skouries will be transformative, increasing production volumes, diversifying revenue mix, and expanding EBITDA margins. However, they also caution that elevated all-in sustaining costs and potential ramp-up or regulatory setbacks could strain future margins.

The SWS DCF model suggests that Eldorado Gold trades at a 63.5% discount to an estimated fair value of CA$161.33, raising questions about the accuracy of cash flow inputs. Meanwhile, the most followed narrative puts Eldorado Gold's fair value at CA$58.16, which is slightly below the last close at CA$58.89.