Energy Stocks Positioned for Prolonged Iran War
The Iran war has caused significant disruptions to global oil supply, with over 10 million barrels per day impacted since its beginning. JPMorgan notes that many of the thresholds it previously assumed would limit the conflict's duration have already been crossed without producing a clear exit.
Roughly 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity has been knocked out due to Iranian attacks, with repairs expected to take up to three years. This loss has created a significant demand for alternative suppliers, including U.S. producers, with QatarEnergy seeking 2-3 million tonnes of LNG annually through 2031.
Refiners are also benefiting from the shortage, with U.S. diesel refining margins hitting a record $118.62 per barrel in September. This has driven global fuel inventories to their lowest level since 1982, leading analysts to expect the diesel shortage to continue into 2027.