The Trump administration's proposed rollback of methane emissions rules is unlikely to significantly lower oil and natural gas prices, according to the Environmental Protection Agency's economic modeling. The EPA estimates the changes would reduce U.S. crude prices by just 11 cents per barrel in 2027, a mere 0.14% decrease, while boosting domestic oil production by 0.09%. This amounts to roughly one additional barrel for every 1,000 currently produced in the U.S.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin framed the proposal as a way to lower regulatory costs and support domestic energy production, stating, 'When owners and operators can produce, America benefits with lower prices.' However, analysts like CLSA's Baden Moore caution that uncertainty over implementation and policy durability could limit near-term production gains. The changes might instead help slow declines in existing production by keeping some marginal wells operational.
The proposal targets lighter methane requirements based on production levels or extraction methods and would scrap the Super Emitter Program, which monitors major methane releases. The EPA projects the changes would add 60 million short tons of methane emissions from 2027 through 2050 but save the U.S. economy about $45 billion over that period, including $42 billion in lower compliance costs. Operators could capture less gas for sale, resulting in about $4.2 billion in lost revenue.
The proposal remains subject to the rulemaking process, including public comments and further EPA review. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also easing sanctions on Russian diesel exports to address fuel prices, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggesting additional shipments could be permitted depending on Moscow’s actions.