EU Corn Deficit Looms as Logistical Problems Limit Ukrainian Exports
The European Union is facing a significant corn deficit due to weak crop yields. According to the European Commission's MARS monitoring service, the EU corn yield forecast has been lowered to 6.5 t/ha.
COCERAL estimates EU corn production at 48.6 million tons, while the European Commission forecasts 48.8 million tons. Against this backdrop, the EU's import needs could increase significantly.
Ukraine holds significant grain stocks, estimated at 24.6 million tons, up from 14.6 million tons a year earlier. Corn exports are ahead of last year's pace, reaching 1.9 million tons compared with 0.9 million tons at the same stage of the season.
However, logistical problems are constraining further growth in Ukrainian corn exports. Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX Vice President of Clearing and Sales, said that 'Ukrainian exporters fear they will be able to export only 40% of their potential.' The EU may need to import 22-27 million tons of corn in the current season.