EU Grain Production Forecast Cut by 8 Million Tons Amid Heat and Drought

Coceral's forecast for major grain production in the EU-27 and UK has been reduced by 8 million tons to 279 million tons, down from last year's total of 307.4 million tons. This downgrade is primarily due to the impact of summer heat and drought.

The soft wheat crop forecast was lowered from 140.8 million tons to 137.5 million tons, compared with 148.7 million tons in 2025. Crops in Germany and Poland were particularly affected by the heat, while France experienced a lesser impact.

Corn production is also expected to decline, with an estimate of 48.6 million tons, down from 52.7 million tons last year and significantly lower than the 56.5 million tons harvested in 2025. The outlook for corn has deteriorated sharply in France and Hungary, with French production estimated at 7.6 million tons, potentially the lowest level in 20 years.

On a positive note, Coceral raised its rapeseed production forecast from 21.2 million tons to 21.3 million tons, which is close to last year's level of 21.4 million tons. Rapeseed crops were less affected by the heat than wheat and corn, with planted area increasing from 6.4 million hectares to 6.8 million hectares.

Total production of main oilseeds - rapeseed, sunflower seed, and soybeans - could reach 34.3-34.5 million tons in 2026, surpassing the 2025 level and partially offsetting the shortage of feed grains through higher supplies of meal and vegetable oils.