EU Soft Wheat Exports Boosted as Black Sea Flows Falter

Expana has revised its forecast for European Union soft-wheat exports upward due to reduced Black Sea shipments. The firm's data estimates EU soft wheat exports for 2026/27 at 29.5 million metric tonnes, a rise from the 28.7 million tons previously forecast in August.

However, Expana has lowered its estimate for 2025/26 to 28.5 million tons. The reduction in Black Sea exports, primarily attributed to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, is driving buyers towards alternative sources.

The large harvests in North Africa and the Middle East are also contributing to reduced global demand for EU soft wheat, according to Expana's report. European barley and wheat are benefiting from this shift as they receive additional demand due to the shortfall of Ukrainian and Russian exports.